This article on industrial dynamics is Sequel 10 to From Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus ~ Cultural Evolution During the 21st Century. It follows
Sequel 1 on conscious evolution,
Sequel 2 on human supremacy,
Sequel 3 on human personhood,
Sequel 4 on human relations,
Sequel 5 on human agency,
Sequel 6 on historical dynamics,
Sequel 7 on personal dynamics,
Sequel 8 on gender dynamics, and
Sequel 9 on social dynamics.
The patriarchal mindset of dominion and exploitation of nature, exacerbated in our industrial-technocratic civilization by the power of fossil fuels, is making the planet socially and ecologically dysfunctional. Human civilization is now in a paradoxical situation: "If human consumption growth continues, the planetary life support system will be disabled and humanity will itself become endangered. If consumption growth is stopped, the viability of the world's economic and financial systems will be threatened, and the stability of governments and society will deteriorate." The Ecocosm Paradox. This page, sequel 10 of the current series on cultural evolution, attempts to summarize where we are coming from, our current understanding of where we are, and emerging trends.
Agricultural Revolutions
The First Agricultural Revolution, starting ca. 10000 BCE, was "the prehistoric transition from hunting and gathering to settled agriculture." It was powered by human muscle, animal muscle, and slavery. A succession of agricultural revolutions followed, with better techniques improving yield but not necessarily improving soils. The Green Revolution, starting in the late 1950s and 1960s, significantly improved the quantity of food produced worldwide by using new varieties of seeds, the use of pesticides, and the power of fossil fuels. In Silent Spring (1962) Rachel Carson warned that the use of pesticides would poison the soil and the entire biosphere. The abundance of food also induced exponential population growth, from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today.
Industrial Revolutions
Industrial agriculture, like all other sectors of industrial activity since the First Industrial Revolution (starting in the late 18th and early 19th centuries) is powered by the power of fossil fuels, with well known side effects, i.e., CO2 emissions and all manner of toxic pollution that are literally poisoning the entire planet. Industrial Ecology is the study of these multidimentional phenomena and how to manage the flows of materials and energy through various supply chains and industrial systems in order to minimize adverse impacts on the human population. But as long as population and consumption keep growing, and new technologies emerge that are both resource-intensive and energy-intensive, there is no way to reverse the entropic degradation of the human civilization that is embedded in the planetary ecosystem.
A painting by Kemma Breslau. Industrialization also means the mechanization of traditionally manual economic-sectors such as agriculture. Image licensed CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons. Click the image to enlarge.
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There has been a succesion of industrial revolutions, usually identified as follows:
First Industrial Revolution: Coal in 1765.
Second Industrial Revolution: Gas in 1870.
Third Industrial Revolution: Electronics and Nuclear in 1969.
Fourth Industrial Revolution: Internet and Renewable Energy in 2000.
In terms of energy, the succession of industrial revolutions is a continuum powered by fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewable energy sources can be scaled up to support the energy throughput of current industrial civilization. Even more doubtful if the global system (population x consumption per capita) keeps growing. What will happen when fossil fuels become depleted and/or become uneconomical as they become harder to extract and harder to deliver, and cleaning the mess becomes harder and harder?
Current Trends ~ Technocratic-Industrial Complexity
The evolution from Homo economicus (economic consciousness) to Homo ecologicus (ecological consciousness) entails dismantling the technocratic scaffolding in which industrial civilization is embedded. Technology has become a sacred cow. It is commonly presented as the solution to all social issues and the guarantor of perpetual progress. And by "technology" is generally meant "high technology" that is intrinsically resource-intensive and energy-intensive. Homo economicus has an insatiable appetite for more power to dominate others and nature. Money leads to power, so Homo economicus wants to have an economic system driven by financialization and short-term financial profit, regardless of side effects and future consequences.
This is not to minimize the value of technology. As the I = PAT equation makes clear, technology is an unavoidable factor of human agency. But everyone knows that technology can enhance human agency for good or bad, depending on how it is used and the energy and resources required. Population (P) is the elephant in the room. Affluence (A), or consumption per capita, is a multiplier of population, usually unequally distributed but the net aggregate load on the planet is what counts. Technology (T) can be simple or complex. Simple or low technologies (e.g., wheels) have minor environmental side effects. Complex of high technologies (e.g., computers) have major environmental side effects by way of the materials and energy throughput required.
High technologies also generate additional system complexity. The complexity of a system is a function of the number of components and the number of interactions among components. Additional complexity is added when the interactions are nonlinear. In information systems, additional complexity is added when information is distorted by misinformation and/or disinformation. A globalized world of 8 billion people, 80+ trillion USD, and a global telecom system including hardware, software, and artificial intelligence nodes, is an exceedingly complex system that is exceedingly difficult to manage, even assuming good intentions by all stakeholders. This is the monster that patriarchal Homo economicus has created, with inevitable consequences in terms of both biophysical entropy (biophysical disorder) and social entropy (social disorder).
Some significant advances have been made to gain insight into the structure and behavior of complex systems. In the domain of economics, Wassily Leontief developed input-output matrix models to trace the interdependencies between sectors of national and regional economies. They can be extended to calculate the environmental impacts of changes in demand. In the biophysical dimension, Alfred Lotka wrote on the energetics of evolution as early as 1922, and Norbert Weiner created the new science of cybernetics to examine how the behavior of animals and machines emanates from the feedback loop structures (circular causality). Howard Odum extended energetic and feedback loop analysis to ecological systems.
Jay Forrester then focused on industrial dynamics (1961), urban dynamics (1969), and world dynamics (1971). His Principles of Systems (1968) became the new methodology known as System Dynamics. The article, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems (1971), cemented System Dynamics as a most useful method to analyze and simulate the behavior of complex systems. System Dynamics became the basis for the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth book by Donella Meadows et al (1972, updated 1992 and 2004). This work challenged the perpetual growth paradigm, so it was ferociously vilified by Homo economicus, but efforts continue to gain a better understanding of how to manage the global industrial-financial monster. The most recent updates are Limits and Beyond and Earth for All (2022).
Many other methods have been developed to explore how the behavior of complex systems emerges from their endogenous structure in response to exogenous inputs from other systems. The following discussion is based on the System Dynamics method. More specifically, it builds on The Energy Perspective: Oil and the Magical 4%, a comprehensive analysis of the energy structure of the global industrial-financial system, and how it creates the illusory expectation of perpetual growth that is destroying the planet, published by Willard Fey in 2005. What follows is a simplified version of the analysis and a narrative intended for a general audience.
Basically, the global industrial-financial monster is a gigantic octopus with two lungs, 193 heads (the number of nations in the UN) and 8 billion tentacles (the number of humans currently inhabiting the planet). The 193 heads wear various hats (political systems) but all subscribe to the same patriarchal Homo economicus paradigm of domination by force and perpetual growth. Some of the 8 billion tentacles are bigger and/or longer than others, but all consume as much as possible. For the global industrial ecology, what matters is the net aggregate load they impose on the planetary ecosystem in terms of energy throughput, resource extraction, toxic emissions, etc. And the 8 billion tentacles inhale and exhale using the same two lungs: a consumption growth feedback loop and a population growth feedback loop, as shown in the following diagram:
This is a simplified version of the Ecocosm Paradox Diagram. Click on the image to enlarge. The positive signs on the consumption and population loops indicate that they are self-reinforcing growth loops, i.e., growth generates more growth. For more information on the feedback loops, click here.
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The plot below is a simulated scenario. This scenario assumes that Homo economicus does not adapt to emerging social and ecological realities. In other words, "business as usual." GDP (curve 2) keeps growing. Population (curve 1) keeps growing, but peaks ar 2040 and begins decreasing afterwards in response to faltering consumption per capita (curve 4) due to slow growth of energy availability (curve 3) and consequent slow down of access to other resources, including food. The solidarity index (curve 5), a measure of social cohesion, also starts declining in the 2000 to 2050 timeframe. The trends are indicative of impending oscillations in population and consumption as ecological degradation unfolds during the Anthropocene.
This is a computer simulation plot. Focus on the trends, not the numbers. This is one of many possible scenarios, not a prediction. Click on the image to enlarge. For more information on the causal loop diagrams, the simulation model, and plots of the simulated scenarios, click here.
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Please note that this "sustainable development" model is a demo, not a policy analysis capability. For more information on the rationale for the model and the scenarios, click here. Readers who might want to review the data and equations that generated these trends can do so by clicking here. This demo is not undergoing further development because "sustainable development" has become synonymous with "sustainable growth" and is, therefore, an oxymoron. The currently emerging dynamics of industrial-financial growth and degrowth will be explored further in the November and December updates of this journal.
Current Trends ~ Theocratic-Industrial Complexity
What about the evolution from Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus in religious traditions? Approximately 80% of the global population profess adherence (at least nominally) to one of the many religious traditions, so this is an important practical question. To answer, let's keep in mind that Homo sapiens became Homo patriarchalis long before becoming Homo economicus. By the time all the major religious traditions started, long after the First Agricultural Revolution (ca. 10000 years ago), they all assumed that patriarchy is natural law and even divine law. See, for example, Genesis 3:16, written ca. 1000 BCE. So, from the start, religious traditions emerged as patriarchal traditions, and in turn reinforced the patriarchal mindset of people and institutions:
"Agricultural societies institutionalized many new behaviors, including racist practices and mass religion, which cemented the global subordination of women to men... That gender differential is the most pervasive inequity of the new abnormal, one that a political movement in the United States is struggling to exacerbate along with institutional inequity... both of which would have been impossible in hunter–gatherer bands..."
Paul & Anne Ehrlich, Returning to “Normal”? Evolutionary Roots of the Human Prospect, BioScience, August 2022.
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Homo economicus is the modern version of Homo patriarchalis, now competing for money in order to attain power to dominate others and control natural resources:
"If Homo patriarchalis dies hard, even in so-called developed societies, Homo oeconomicus is its uninhibited successor, immensely more elastic, indifferent to any change of morals and often their promoter as long as it brings money. The core does not change, man defines himself as a competitor."
Gianandrea Franchi, Money, Desire, Androcentrism, Libera Università delle Donne, November 2014. Google translation from the original in Italian.
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Money leads to power. Modern industrial capitalism (or industrial socialism, or any other "ism") is patriarchal capitalism (or patriarchal socialism, or any other "ism"). All the major world religions have been both patriarchal religions and imperial religions (see, e.g., the doctrine of discovery). Some still are, as evidenced by the recent emergence of dictatorial theocratic states. Even in democratic countries, religious patriarchy persists and many people continue to regard obsolete patriarchal stereotypes with religious faith. For instance, in the Catholic and Orthodox churches, every conceivable rationalization is being used to justify an exclusively male clergy. Most people are still afraid to bring up this issue, but the patriarchal priesthood is not a matter of faith:
1. Jesus Christ is the Redeemer, God made flesh, not a patriarch.
2. God the Father is a person, but not a male.
3. God the Son is a person, but was not a male before the incarnation.
4. God the Holy Spirit is a person, but not a male.
5. The Trinity is a communion of persons, not a patriarchate.
6. The "Son of Man" is God made flesh, not a patriarch.
7. All men and women are fully consubstantial in one and the same human nature.
8. Bodiliness and sexuality are not simply identical.
9. Being a body-soul is more fundamental for human nature than sexuality.
10. The body is a sacrament of the entire person, but is not the entire person.
11. The priest acts in the person of Christ, not in the masculinity of Christ.
12. All men and women are ontologically homogeneous in their whole being.
13. All men and women are of the same flesh in their somatic structure.
14. The complementarity of man and woman is enabled by their consubstantiality.
15. All men and women are fully consubstantial with Jesus Christ as to his humanity.
16. For the redemption, the masculinity of Jesus is as incidental as the color of his eyes.
17. Jesus Christ is the Bread of Life, not the male of life.
18. The substance of the Eucharist is BODY, not XX or XY chromosomes.
19. The substance of the Eucharist is FLESH, not testosterone.
20. The Church is "one, holy, catholic, and apostolic," but not necessarily patriarchal.
21. Patriarchy is a disordered attachment to the supremacy of masculinity.
22. The Church is a communion of persons, not a patriarchate.
23. The Church is the body of Christ, not a woman with a male head.
24. The Virgin Mary is the "type" of the Church, not a woman with a male head.
25. The Virgin Mary precedes the sacramental economy as Mother of the Eucharist.
26. The Marian dimension of the Church precedes the apostolic dimension.
27. Apostolic succession is contingent on redeemed flesh, not on masculinity.
28. The nuptial mystery of Christ and the Church is not a patriarchal marriage.
29. Canon 1024 is an artificial contraceptive and abortifacient of female priestly vocations.
30. Catechism 1577 reduces the priesthood of the New Law to priesthood of the Old Law.
31. Catechism 1598 declares that ordaining only males is a choice, not a dogma.
32. The exclusively male priesthood makes invisible the "feminine genius" in Christ.
33. The Christian/Catholic/Orthodox faith is not intrinsically (dogmatically) patriarchal.
34. The conflation of patriarchal gender ideology and Christian doctrines is a disgrace.
35. Institutionalized ecclesiastical patriarchy is an abuse against Christ and the Church.
36. It is time to discard the patriarchal scaffolding that obscures the Catholic faith.
37. Male headship is an ancient but entirely artificial cultural custom, not natural law.
38. After the resurrection, nothing requires that apostolic succession be exclusively male.
39. The first "transubstantiation" in history happened in the Blessed Virgin Mary's body.
40. Transubstantiation can happen via women ordained to act in persona Christi.
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In the Catholic Church, the current emphasis on synodality pursuant to improving communion, participation, and mission, offers a ray of hope that some day the patriarchal, imperial church will become a nonsexist, fully inclusive sacred community of committed believers centered on the Eucharist, witnessing by example of a simpler lifestyle, and free of the patriarchal scaffolding of religious pomp and circumstance that obscures the Christian faith and undoubtedly contributes to perpetuate the patriarchal mindset of domination (of men over women, men over other men, men over nature) in all dimensions of human life; and, needless to say, women who have internalized patriarchy can become more patriarchal than the patriarchs.
Human nature is not the problem. Climate change is not the problem. Mother Nature is not the problem. Religious faith is not the problem. The patriarchal mindset of domination is the problem. It really doesn't matter much whether domination is attained by brute force, of by financial force, or by any other means. When the patriarchal mindset of domination is justified by religious patriarchy and exacerbated by the power of fossil fuels, we what we get is what we have now: overpopulation, overconsumption, ecological overshoot, and entropic disorder.
Guidance of the Encyclicals Laudato si' and Fratelli tutti
What can we do to foster the evolution from Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus in both the secular and religious domains? Some good guidance, based on natural biophysical realities, is already available. Pope Francis' encyclicals Laudato Si' on sustainability, and Fratelli Tutti on solidarity, are good guidance for human agency by all men and women of good will. There is an intrinsic connection between the two encyclicals, because ecological sustainability is practically impossible to attain without human solidarity. So Laudato Si' explains the problem, although it fails to mention that overpopulation is a significant part of the problem. Fratelli Tutti explains the solution, although it ignores that the church is a patriarchy and is, therefore, part of the problem.
Lamentably, the patriarchal (exclusively male) priesthood, a symbol of domination of man over woman, is a disgraceful obstacle to cultural evolution away from the mindset of dominion, as Fratelli Tutti prescribes for the renewal of human civilization envisioned in Laudato Si' (114, 118). It is well known that dominion in the gender dimension of human relations extends to dominion in the social and ecological dimensions. Nevertheless, the Laudato Si' Action Platform and the Laudato Si' Movement are recommended as an effective way, especially for 1.3 billion Catholics, to play a part in conscious cultural evolution for the renewal of humanity and human civilization.
Study the encyclicals Laudato Si' and Fratelli Tutti.
Visit the Laudato Si' official website.
Another good resource is the Laudato Si' Research Institute.
Click the image to explore the Laudato Si' Action Platform.
Consider becoming active in the Laudato Si' Movement.
Goals of the Laudato Si' Action Platform:
(1) Hearing the Cry of the Earth
(2) Hearing the Cry of the Poor
(3) Ecological Economics
(4) Adoption of Sustainable Lifestyles
(5) Ecological Education
(6) Ecological Spirituality
(7) Community Resilience and Empowerment
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