Mother Pelican ~ A Journal of Sustainable Human Development

Mother Pelican
A Journal of Sustainable Human Development

Vol. 7, No. 5, May 2011
Luis T. Gutiérrez, Editor

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Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)
Version 1.5 - List of Equations

SUMMARY OF STELLA NOTATION

(t) = current time t=1950, 1951, .... ,2199, 2200)
(dt) = delta time (one year)
(t-dt) = time interval, e.g., t-dt=2042-1=2041)
INIT = initial condition (initial value) for level equations
UNITS = units of measurement (including unitless)
DOCUMENT = documentation, or description, of a level, rate, or converter
GRAPH = linear or nonlinear function, e.g., y=f(x)
SMOOTH = exponential smoothing (equivalent to exponential delay)
MIN = minimum of two or more values
MAX = maximun of two or more values
MEAN = arithmetic average of two or more values
LEVEL(t) = LEVEL(t-dt) + dt*(INFLOWS - OUTFLOWS)
RATE = RATE(t,t+dt) = a mathematical function of constants and one or more levels at time t
CONVERTER = CONVERTER(t) = a constant or mathematical function of one or more levels at time t

NOTES
SDSIM 1.0 is a basic test model for simulation of the sustainable development process

SDSIM 1.1 is SDSIM 1.0 with some minor mathematical corrections and parametric adjustments

SDSIM 1.2 is SDSIM 1.1 with an upgraded user interface and supplementary equations to calculate the percent attainment of MDG targets.

SDSIM 1.3 is SDSIM 1.2 with all adaptation delays reset to zero, i.e., assuming instant adaptation of human behavior to changing conditions.

SDSIM 1.4 is SDSIM 1.3 with exogenous inputs (stimuli) based on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)

SDSIM 1.5 is SDSIM 1.4 with multipliers for Propensity to Consume (PTC) and Propensity to Adapt (PTA)

The endogenous mathematical equations for SDSIM 1.3, 1.4, and 1.5 are mathematically the same. Activation of the exogenous inputs ESD1, ESD2, ESD3, ESD4, ESD5, ESD6, ESD7, and ESD8 is done by entering an ESD parameter as a multiplier in the equations for BDR, BRR, CCR, CDR, DSC, ECR, HBR, HDR, ISC, where:

ESD1 - Education for Sustainable Urbanization
ESD2 - Education for Sustainable Consumption
ESD3 - Education for Peace and Human Security
ESD4 - Education for Rural Development
ESD5 - Education for Cultural Diversity
ESD6 - Education for Gender Equality
ESD7 - Education for Health Promotion
ESD8 - Education for Environmental Stewardship
BDR = Biosphere Degradation Rate
BRR = Biosphere Restoration Rate
CCR = Consumables Consumption Rate
CDR = Climate Degradation Rate
DSC = Social Capital Decrease Rate
ECR = Energy Conversion Rate
HBR = Human Birth Rate
HDR = Human Death Rate
ISC = Social Capital Increase Rate

In order to activate the ESD stimuli, each ESD is set to 1 as default and either 1.25 for 25% increase or 0.75 for 75% decrease to account for the impact of additional ESD activity. The equations containing these ESD stimulus parameters are highlighted (green color) in the list of equations.

FOR EACH VERSION:
In SCENARIO 1, human development does not induce adaptation in human behavior.

In SCENARIO 2, human development induces adaptation in human behavior, i.e., mitigation of material consumption and greater effort in taking care of the human human habitat.

SDSIM 1.5 Equations

LEVELS (ACCUMULATIONS) & RATES (INFLOWS & OUTFLOWS)

BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY(t) = BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY(t - dt) + (BIOSPHERE_RESTORATION_RATE - BIOSPHERE_DEGRADATION_RATE) * dt
INIT BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY = 85
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: BIOSPHERE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet biosphere. It is assumed to be 85 as of 1950.

INFLOWS:
BIOSPHERE_RESTORATION_RATE = ESD4*BRRTF*IECAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,BRRAFCI),100)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.

OUTFLOWS:
BIOSPHERE_DEGRADATION_RATE = ESD8*BDRTF*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION*BDAFCP),500)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.

CLIMATE_INTEGRITY(t) = CLIMATE_INTEGRITY(t - dt) + (CLIMATE_RESTORATION_RATE - CLIMATE_DEGRADATION__RATE) * dt
INIT CLIMATE_INTEGRITY = 95
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: CLIMATE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet climate. It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.

INFLOWS:
CLIMATE_RESTORATION_RATE = CRRTF*IECAFHC*CLIMATE_INTEGRITY
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of climate integrity. It is assumed that climate restoration must be achieved by natural climate factors and is not achievable by technological means.

OUTFLOWS:
CLIMATE_DEGRADATION__RATE = ESD8*CDRTF*SMTH3(MAX(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY,CDRAFBI),10)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.

CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION(t) = CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION(t - dt) + (POLLUTION_GENERATION_RATE - POLLUTION_ABATEMENT_RATE) * dt
INIT CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION = 3000000000
UNITS: PPMV
DOCUMENT: CUMULATIVE POLLUTION is measured in CO2 Parts Per Million By Volume (PPMV)

INFLOWS:
POLLUTION_GENERATION_RATE = HUMAN_POPULATION*PGRTF*PGRCF*PGRAFHC*PGRAFEC
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.

OUTFLOWS:
POLLUTION_ABATEMENT_RATE = PARTF*MIN(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCPA)
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of cumulative pollution and financial capital.

ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL(t) = ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_ECOLOGICAL__CAPITAL - DECREASING_ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL) * dt
INIT ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL = 100
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: ECOLOGICAL CAPITAL is measured as the remaing percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet ecological capital (both biosphere and climate). It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.

INFLOWS:
INCREASING_ECOLOGICAL__CAPITAL = IECTF*IECAFHC*MIN(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL,IECAFCI,IECAFBI)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital, biosphere integrity, and climate integrity.

OUTFLOWS:
DECREASING_ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL = DECTFS1S2*ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital.

ENERGY_CONSUMPTION(t) = ENERGY_CONSUMPTION(t - dt) + (ENERGY_CONVERSION_RATE - ENERGY_USAGE_RATE) * dt
INIT ENERGY_CONSUMPTION = 3000
UNITS: MTOE
DOCUMENT: ENERGY CONSUMPTION is measured in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE). It could be measured in any other energy units that can be consistently applied to all energy sources. It is assumed that energy consumption will gradually shift from fossil fuels to clean energy sources as demand continues to rise and fossil fuels become depleted and more expensive to extract. Supporting description and data on the substitution process: A Global Shift to Renewable Energy, Lester R. Brown, EPI, 24 August 2010. http://www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2010/pb4ch05_ss1

INFLOWS:
ENERGY_CONVERSION_RATE = ESD1*ECRTF*SMTH3(SMTH3(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,30),50)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Conversion Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of expected energy consumption. It is assumed that technologies are available to convert any required mix of renewable and non-renewable energy sources as required to for energy consumption.

OUTFLOWS:
ENERGY_USAGE_RATE = EURTF*MIN(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_CONSUMPTION*EURPC,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCED)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of human consumption, actual energy consumption, and financial capital.

FINANCIAL_CAPITAL(t) = FINANCIAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL - DECREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL) * dt
INIT FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = 1500000000000
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: FINANCIAL CAPITAL is measured in US Dollars whether or not each dollar has real value (real wealth). So this level includes US dollars of real wealth and US dollars of phantom wealth (e.g., dollars generated by financial manipulations that are not based on real wealth (goods and services).

INFLOWS:
INCREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = IFCTF*IFCAFEC*IFCAFHC*FINANCIAL_CAPITAL
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital, human population, and ecological capital.

OUTFLOWS:
DECREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = DFCTF*DFCCF*FINANCIAL_CAPITAL
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital and ecological capital.

HUMAN_CAPITAL(t) = HUMAN_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL - DECREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL) * dt
INIT HUMAN_CAPITAL = 0.1
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the maximum human potential. It is asumed to be 0.1 as of 1950. More specifically, HUMAN CAPITAL is the percentahe of the HUMAN POPULATION that has ascended to levels 4 and 5 of Maslow's pyramid of human needs.

INFLOWS:
INCREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = 0.1*IHCAFCPC*IHCAFHC*MIN(HUMAN_CAPITAL,SOCIAL_CAPITAL,IHCAFSC)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital, existing social capital, and consumption per capita.

OUTFLOWS:
DECREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = DHCTF*DHCAFEC*HUMAN_CAPITAL
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital and ecological capital.

HUMAN_CONSUMPTION(t) = HUMAN_CONSUMPTION(t - dt) + (CONSUMABLES_PRODUCTION_RATE - CONSUMABLES_CONSUMPTION_RATE) * dt
INIT HUMAN_CONSUMPTION = 4082000000
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CONSUMPTION (Gross World Product - GWP) in "real value" US Dollars as of 1950, based on the CIA World Factbook. Each dollar is assumed to have real value in terms of goods and services independently of financial manipulations or any other form of phantom wealth.

INFLOWS:
CONSUMABLES_PRODUCTION_RATE = CPRTF*
MIN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CPRCF)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, and ecological capital.

OUTFLOWS:
CONSUMABLES_CONSUMPTION_RATE = ESD2*CCRTF*CCRAFEC*CCRAFHC*MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CCRCF,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCCC)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, ecological capital, and financial capital.

HUMAN_POPULATION(t) = HUMAN_POPULATION(t - dt) + (HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE - HUMAN_DEATH_RATE) * dt
INIT HUMAN_POPULATION = 2555974605
UNITS: persons
DOCUMENT: HUMAN POPULATION (number of persons in the world) as of 1950, based on the US Census World Population Clock.

INFLOWS:
HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE = ESD6*INTENDED_HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE*HBRAFHC*HBRRFHC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,100)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate (persons/year) is a function of intended (biologically possible) birth rate, human population, human consumption, and human capital.

OUTFLOWS:
HUMAN_DEATH_RATE = ESD7*HDRTF*HDRAFEC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,30)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate (persons/year) is a function of human population, longevity, and ecological capital.

SOCIAL_CAPITAL(t) = SOCIAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL - DECREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL) * dt
INIT SOCIAL_CAPITAL = 1
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: SOCIAL CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the social cohesion to be expected in a civilized society. It is asumed to be 1 as of 1950. The most fundamental indicator of social cohesion is gender equality, i.e., the percentage of the population that accepts and practices gender equality in all dimensions of human life.

INFLOWS:
INCREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = ESD5*ESD3*ISCTF*ISCAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(SOCIAL_CAPITAL,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCSC),17.5)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital, existing human capital, and financial capital.

OUTFLOWS:
DECREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = DSCTF*DSCAFEC*SOCIAL_CAPITAL
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital and ecological capital.

CONVERTERS (FORMULATION OF RATES AS FUNCTIONS OF LEVELS)

BDAFCP = GRAPH(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION)
(0.00, 1.50), (5e+011, 5.00), (1e+012, 10.5), (1.5e+012, 24.0), (2e+012, 33.5), (2.5e+012, 44.0), (3e+012, 55.5), (3.5e+012, 61.5), (4e+012, 68.0), (4.5e+012, 74.0), (5e+012, 74.5)
UNITS: percent/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Biospehe Degradation Adjustment Factor as a function of Cumulative Pollution
BDRTF = MIN(0.0025,DECTAFHC)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Degradation Rate Time Factor
BRRAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0.00, 9.50), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 29.5), (30.0, 52.0), (40.0, 61.5), (50.0, 71.0), (60.0, 81.5), (70.0, 87.0), (80.0, 90.5), (90.0, 92.0), (100, 92.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
BRRTF = 0.0001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Rate Time Factor
CCRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.01), (3750, 1.01), (5000, 1.01), (6250, 1.01), (7500, 1.01), (8750, 1.08), (10000, 1.24), (11250, 1.29), (12500, 1.29), (13750, 1.29), (15000, 1.29)
UNITS: Unitless
CCRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.985), (10.0, 0.945), (20.0, 0.92), (30.0, 0.91), (40.0, 0.9), (50.0, 0.895), (60.0, 0.895), (70.0, 0.885), (80.0, 0.88), (90.0, 0.875), (100, 0.875)
UNITS: Unitless
CCRCF = 10
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate Conversion Factor
CCRTF = 0.001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate Conversion Time Factor
CDRAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0.00, 80.5), (10.0, 80.5), (20.0, 80.0), (30.0, 79.0), (40.0, 63.0), (50.0, 54.0), (60.0, 28.5), (70.0, 25.5), (80.0, 15.0), (90.0, 13.0), (100, 13.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
CDRTF = MIN(0.006,DECTAFHC)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate Time Factor
CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA = MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION/HUMAN_POPULATION,ENERGY_CONSUMPTION*(1/EURPC)*(1/HUMAN_POPULATION))
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumption per Capita (real value dollars/person) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.
CPCHCHP = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION/HUMAN_POPULATION)
(0.00, 18.5), (5.00, 37.5), (10.0, 46.5), (15.0, 51.5), (20.0, 54.0), (25.0, 54.0), (30.0, 52.5), (35.0, 49.5), (40.0, 45.5), (45.0, 39.5), (50.0, 20.0)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: CPCHCHP (dollars per person) is the ratio of Human Population and Human Consumption
CPRCF = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 5.97), (10.0, 1.32), (20.0, 0.72), (30.0, 0.63), (40.0, 0.57), (50.0, 0.48), (60.0, 0.48), (70.0, 0.48), (80.0, 0.48), (90.0, 0.48), (100, 0.48)
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate Conversion Factor
CPRTF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.007), (10.0, 0.0325), (20.0, 0.0395), (30.0, 0.039), (40.0, 0.0355), (50.0, 0.0335), (60.0, 0.029), (70.0, 0.0205), (80.0, 0.013), (90.0, 0.0075), (100, 0.0075)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate Time Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
CRRTF = 0.0001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Restoration Rate Time Factor
DECTAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00498), (10.0, 0.00478), (20.0, 0.00142), (30.0, 0.000394), (40.0, 0.0001), (50.0, 0.0001), (60.0, 0.0001), (70.0, 0.0001), (80.0, 0.0001), (90.0, 0.0001), (100, 0.0001)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Ecological Capital Time Factor
DECTF = 0.005
UNITS: 1/yr
DECTFS1S2 = SCENARIO_1*DECTF+SCENARIO_2*DECTAFHC
UNITS: 1/yr
DFCCF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.58), (10.0, 1.54), (20.0, 1.43), (30.0, 1.29), (40.0, 1.19), (50.0, 1.15), (60.0, 1.09), (70.0, 1.05), (80.0, 1.03), (90.0, 1.02), (100, 1.02)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital Conversion Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
DFCTF = 0.001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital Time Factor
DHCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.40), (10.0, 1.41), (20.0, 1.38), (30.0, 1.30), (40.0, 1.13), (50.0, 1.05), (60.0, 1.03), (70.0, 1.00), (80.0, 1.00), (90.0, 1.00), (100, 1.00)
UNITS: Unitless
DHCTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Human Capital Time Factor
DSCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.20), (10.0, 1.20), (20.0, 1.19), (30.0, 1.17), (40.0, 1.16), (50.0, 1.15), (60.0, 1.15), (70.0, 1.15), (80.0, 1.15), (90.0, 1.15), (100, 1.23)
UNITS: Unitless
DSCTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Social Capital Time Factor
ECRTF = 0.03
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Conversion Rate Time Factor
EURPC = 10
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate Per Capita
EURTF = 0.02
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate Time Factor
FCCC = FCCCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USDollars/USDollars
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Consumables Consumption
FCCCCF = 0.000000033
UNITS: USDollars/USDollars
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Consumables Consumption Conversion Factor
FCED = FCEDCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Energy Development
FCEDCF = 0.000000033
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Energy Development Conversion Factor
FCPA = FCPACF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USD/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Pollution Abatement
FCPACF = 0.000000033
UNITS: ppmv/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Pollution Abatement Conversion Factor
FCSC = FCSCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: percent/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Social Development
FCSCCF = 0.000000001
UNITS: percent/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Social Capital Conversion Factor
HBRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.96), (10.0, 0.742), (20.0, 0.622), (30.0, 0.547), (40.0, 0.465), (50.0, 0.405), (60.0, 0.397), (70.0, 0.397), (80.0, 0.397), (90.0, 0.397), (100, 0.397)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Adjustment Factor as a Function of Human Capital
HBRRFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.00), (3750, 1.05), (5000, 1.09), (6250, 1.10), (7500, 1.11), (8750, 1.11), (10000, 1.11), (11250, 1.11), (12500, 1.09), (13750, 1.05), (15000, 1.01)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Reproduction Factor as a function of Human Consumption
HDRAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.80), (10.0, 1.61), (20.0, 1.39), (30.0, 1.18), (40.0, 0.92), (50.0, 0.73), (60.0, 0.62), (70.0, 0.6), (80.0, 0.6), (90.0, 0.6), (100, 0.6)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
HDRTF = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0.00, 0.049), (0.3, 0.0437), (0.6, 0.0426), (0.9, 0.0422), (1.20, 0.042), (1.50, 0.0418), (1.80, 0.0418), (2.10, 0.0418), (2.40, 0.0418), (2.70, 0.042), (3.00, 0.0421)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Time Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
IECAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0.00, 1.85), (10.0, 2.21), (20.0, 2.79), (30.0, 4.09), (40.0, 4.86), (50.0, 5.40), (60.0, 5.49), (70.0, 5.58), (80.0, 5.71), (90.0, 5.98), (100, 5.98)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
IECAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0.00, 1.44), (10.0, 3.33), (20.0, 4.46), (30.0, 5.31), (40.0, 5.85), (50.0, 6.25), (60.0, 6.43), (70.0, 6.61), (80.0, 6.71), (90.0, 6.97), (100, 7.02)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
IECAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.03), (10.0, 0.975), (20.0, 1.20), (30.0, 1.48), (40.0, 1.73), (50.0, 2.18), (60.0, 3.65), (70.0, 4.42), (80.0, 4.53), (90.0, 4.53), (100, 4.53)
UNITS: Unitless
IECTF = 0.004
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Time Factor
IFCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.00), (10.0, 1.00), (20.0, 1.00), (30.0, 1.01), (40.0, 1.04), (50.0, 1.04), (60.0, 1.04), (70.0, 1.10), (80.0, 1.26), (90.0, 1.32), (100, 1.32)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
IFCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3e+009, 1.00), (3.6e+009, 1.00), (4.2e+009, 1.00), (4.8e+009, 1.00), (5.4e+009, 1.00), (6e+009, 1.00), (6.6e+009, 1.02), (7.2e+009, 1.13), (7.8e+009, 1.39), (8.4e+009, 1.49), (9e+009, 1.49)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
IFCTF = 0.008
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Time Factor
IHCAFCPC = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0.00, 0.7), (0.5, 2.45), (1.00, 3.15), (1.50, 3.35), (2.00, 3.35), (2.50, 3.20), (3.00, 3.03), (3.50, 2.73), (4.00, 2.50), (4.50, 2.20), (5.00, 0.575)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
IHCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 1.00), (10.0, 0.89), (20.0, 0.775), (30.0, 0.67), (40.0, 0.565), (50.0, 0.455), (60.0, 0.36), (70.0, 0.24), (80.0, 0.135), (90.0, 0.055), (100, 0.00)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
IHCAFSC = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 37.5), (10.0, 61.5), (20.0, 75.0), (30.0, 79.5), (40.0, 81.0), (50.0, 80.0), (60.0, 76.5), (70.0, 62.5), (80.0, 50.5), (90.0, 46.0), (100, 46.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Social Capital
ISCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 4.15), (10.0, 5.60), (20.0, 6.15), (30.0, 6.50), (40.0, 6.50), (50.0, 6.10), (60.0, 5.20), (70.0, 2.20), (80.0, 1.55), (90.0, 1.30), (100, 1.30)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
ISCTF = 0.008
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital Time Factor
MDG1 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.5), (10.0, 24.5), (20.0, 38.0), (30.0, 46.0), (40.0, 54.5), (50.0, 58.5), (60.0, 62.5), (70.0, 64.5), (80.0, 66.0), (90.0, 66.0), (100, 66.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG1 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG2 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 25.0), (20.0, 48.0), (30.0, 69.0), (40.0, 82.5), (50.0, 86.5), (60.0, 89.5), (70.0, 90.5), (80.0, 91.0), (90.0, 90.5), (100, 89.5)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG2 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG3 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 53.5), (20.0, 73.5), (30.0, 86.0), (40.0, 92.0), (50.0, 94.0), (60.0, 94.0), (70.0, 94.0), (80.0, 94.0), (90.0, 93.5), (100, 98.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG3 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG4 = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 90.0), (100, 100)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG4 is a function of Social Capital
MDG5 = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 90.0), (100, 100)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG5 is a function of Social Capital
MDG6 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.5), (10.0, 0.5), (20.0, 3.00), (30.0, 9.00), (40.0, 16.5), (50.0, 42.5), (60.0, 67.5), (70.0, 77.5), (80.0, 81.0), (90.0, 81.5), (100, 82.5)
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG6 is a function of Human Capital and Social capital
MDG7 = GRAPH(0*SOCIAL_CAPITAL+0.33*BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY+0.33*CLIMATE_INTEGRITY+0.33*ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 5.00), (20.0, 9.00), (30.0, 15.0), (40.0, 23.0), (50.0, 32.5), (60.0, 46.5), (70.0, 59.5), (80.0, 77.5), (90.0, 86.5), (100, 89.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG7 is a function of Biological Integrity, Climate Integrity, and Ecological Capital
MDG8 = GRAPH(MEAN(CPCHCHP,SOCIAL_CAPITAL))
(0.00, 10.0), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 89.5), (100, 90.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG8 is a function of Social Capital and Consumption per Capita
PARTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate Time Factor
PGRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.14), (3750, 0.93), (5000, 0.87), (6250, 0.86), (7500, 0.86), (8750, 0.86), (10000, 0.86), (11250, 0.86), (12500, 0.91), (13750, 1.02), (15000, 1.38)
UNITS: Unitless
PGRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3e+009, 0.99), (3.6e+009, 0.99), (4.2e+009, 0.99), (4.8e+009, 0.99), (5.4e+009, 0.99), (6e+009, 0.99), (6.6e+009, 0.99), (7.2e+009, 1.05), (7.8e+009, 1.10), (8.4e+009, 1.32), (9e+009, 1.80)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
PGRCF = 14
UNITS: ppmv/persons
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Conversion Factor
PGRTF = 0.095
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Time Factor
PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT = 1-PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Economic Development as a fraction of Financial Capital allocated to Economic Development

USER DECISIONS

INTENDED_HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE = 0.065
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Default value of Intended Human Birth Rate based on worldwide average from 2001 to 2009

PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT = 1-PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Economic Development as a fraction of Financial Capital allocated to Economic Development

PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT = 0.25
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Social/Human Development as a fraction of total Financial Capital allocated to both Economic and Social/Human Development

SCENARIO SWITCHING

SCENARIO_1 = 0
UNITS: Unitless
SCENARIO_2 = ?
UNITS: Unitless
IF SCENARIO_1 = 1 THEN SCENARIO_2 = 0
IF SCENARIO_1 = 0 THEN SCENARIO_2 = 1

EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STIMULI (ESDs)

ESD1 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD2 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD3 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD4 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD5 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD6 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD7 = 1
UNITS: Unitless
ESD8 = 1
UNITS: Unitless

MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENTGOALS (MDGs)

MDG1 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.5), (10.0, 24.5), (20.0, 38.0), (30.0, 46.0), (40.0, 54.5), (50.0, 58.5), (60.0, 62.5), (70.0, 64.5), (80.0, 66.0), (90.0, 66.0), (100, 66.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG1 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG2 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 25.0), (20.0, 48.0), (30.0, 69.0), (40.0, 82.5), (50.0, 86.5), (60.0, 89.5), (70.0, 90.5), (80.0, 91.0), (90.0, 90.5), (100, 89.5)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG2 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG3 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 53.5), (20.0, 73.5), (30.0, 86.0), (40.0, 92.0), (50.0, 94.0), (60.0, 94.0), (70.0, 94.0), (80.0, 94.0), (90.0, 93.5), (100, 98.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG3 is a function of Human Capital and Social Capital
MDG4 = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 90.0), (100, 100)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG4 is a function of Social Capital
MDG5 = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 90.0), (100, 100)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG5 is a function of Social Capital
MDG6 = GRAPH(0.5*HUMAN_CAPITAL+0.5*SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.5), (10.0, 0.5), (20.0, 3.00), (30.0, 9.00), (40.0, 16.5), (50.0, 42.5), (60.0, 67.5), (70.0, 77.5), (80.0, 81.0), (90.0, 81.5), (100, 82.5)
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG6 is a function of Human Capital and Social capital
MDG7 = GRAPH(0*SOCIAL_CAPITAL+0.33*BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY+0.33*CLIMATE_INTEGRITY+0.33*ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0.00, 0.00), (10.0, 5.00), (20.0, 9.00), (30.0, 15.0), (40.0, 23.0), (50.0, 32.5), (60.0, 46.5), (70.0, 59.5), (80.0, 77.5), (90.0, 86.5), (100, 89.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG7 is a function of Biological Integrity, Climate Integrity, and Ecological Capital
MDG8 = GRAPH(MEAN(CPCHCHP,SOCIAL_CAPITAL))
(0.00, 10.0), (10.0, 10.0), (20.0, 20.0), (30.0, 30.0), (40.0, 40.0), (50.0, 50.0), (60.0, 60.0), (70.0, 70.0), (80.0, 80.0), (90.0, 89.5), (100, 90.0)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Attainment of MDG8 is a function of Social Capital and Consumption per Capita
PARTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate Time Factor
PGRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.14), (3750, 0.93), (5000, 0.87), (6250, 0.86), (7500, 0.86), (8750, 0.86), (10000, 0.86), (11250, 0.86), (12500, 0.91), (13750, 1.02), (15000, 1.38)
UNITS: Unitless
PGRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3e+009, 0.99), (3.6e+009, 0.99), (4.2e+009, 0.99), (4.8e+009, 0.99), (5.4e+009, 0.99), (6e+009, 0.99), (6.6e+009, 0.99), (7.2e+009, 1.05), (7.8e+009, 1.10), (8.4e+009, 1.32), (9e+009, 1.80)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
PGRCF = 14
UNITS: ppmv/persons
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Conversion Factor
PGRTF = 0.095
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Time Factor

HUMAN PROPENSITIES

PROPENSITY TO CONSUME (PTC)
PTC = 0 to 1
UNITS: Unitless
PROPENSITY TO ADAPT (PTA)
PTA = 0 to 1
UNITS: Unitless

TIME SPECS

STARTTIME=1950
STOPTIME=2200
DT=1.00
INTEGRATION=EULER